Injury severity of motorcycle riders involved in traffic crashes in Hunan, China: A mixed ordered logit approach

Chang, Fangrong, Li, Maosheng, Xu, Pengpeng, Zhou, Hanchu, Haque, Md. Mazharul, & Huang, Helai (2016) Injury severity of motorcycle riders involved in traffic crashes in Hunan, China: A mixed ordered logit approach. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 13(7), pp. 714-728.

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Issues related to motorcycle safety in China have not received enough research attention. As such, the causal relationship between injury outcomes of motorcycle crashes and potential risk factors remains unknown. This study intended to investigate the injury risk of motorcyclists involved in road traffic crashes in China. To account for the ordinal nature of response outcomes and unobserved heterogeneity, a mixed ordered logit model was employed. Given that the crash occurrence process is different between intersections and non-intersections, separate models were developed for these locations to independently estimate the impacts of various contributing factors on motorcycle riders’ injury severity. The analysis was based on the police-reported crash dataset obtained from the Traffic Administration Bureau of Hunan Provincial Public Security Ministry. Factors associated with a substantially higher probability of fatalities and severe injuries included motorcycle riders older than 60 years, the absence of helmets, motorcycle riders identified to be equal duty, and when a motorcycle collided with a heavy vehicle during the night time without lighting. Crashes occurred along county roads with curve and slope alignment or at regions with higher GDP were associated with an elevated risk of fatality of motorcycle riders, while unsignalized intersections were related to less severe injuries. Findings of this study are beneficial in forming several targeted countermeasures for motorcycle safety in China, including designing roads with appropriate road delineation and street lighting, strict enforcement for speeding and red light violations, promoting helmet usage, and improving the conspicuity of motorcyclists.

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ID Code: 97571
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Additional Information: This work was jointly supported by the Joint Research Scheme of the National Natural
Science Foundation of China/Research Grants Council of Hong Kong (Project No. 71561167001 & N_HKU707/15),
the Natural Science Foundation of China (Project No. 71371192), and the Research Fund for the Fok Ying Tong
Education Foundation of Hong Kong (142005).
Keywords: injury severity, motorcyclist, unobserved heterogeneity, mixed order logit, China
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph13070714
ISSN: 1660-4601
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > CIVIL ENGINEERING (090500) > Transport Engineering (090507)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ECONOMICS (140000) > ECONOMETRICS (140300) > Econometric and Statistical Methods (140302)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Centre for Accident Research & Road Safety - Qld (CARRS-Q)
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2016 The Author(s), licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
Copyright Statement: This article is an open access
article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution
(CC-BY) license (
Deposited On: 21 Jul 2016 22:23
Last Modified: 26 Jun 2017 02:31

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