Ecological risk assessment, prediction, and assessing risk predictions

Gibbs, Mark T. (2011) Ecological risk assessment, prediction, and assessing risk predictions. Risk Analysis, 31(11), pp. 1784-1788.

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Ecological risk assessment embodied in an adaptive management framework is becoming the global standard approach for formally assessing and managing the ecological risks of technology and development. Ensuring the continual improvement of ecological risk assessment approaches is partly achieved through the dissemination of not only the types of risk assessment approaches used, but also their efficacy. While there is an increasing body of literature describing the results of general comparisons between alternate risk assessment methods and models, there is a paucity of literature that post hoc assesses the performance of specific predictions based on an assessment of risk and the effectiveness of the particular model used to predict the risk. This is especially the case where risk assessments have been used to grant consent or approval for the construction of major infrastructure projects. While postconstruction environmental monitoring is increasingly commonplace, it is not common for a postconstruction assessment of the accuracy and performance of the ecological risk assessment and underpinning model to be undertaken. Without this "assessment of the assessment," it is difficult for other practitioners to gain insight into the performance of the approach and models used and therefore, as argued here, this limits the rate of improvement of risk assessment approaches. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

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7 citations in Web of Science®
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ID Code: 97774
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Ecological risk assessment, Prediction, Risk assessment, Adaptive Management, Assessment approaches, Ecological risks, Environmental Monitoring, Gain insight, Global standards, Infrastructure project, Risk assessment methods, Risk predictions, Ecology, Forecasting, Rating, accuracy assessment, construction industry, environmental impact assessment, global perspective, infrastructural development, literature review, performance assessment, project assessment, technological development, article, environment, risk management
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01605.x
ISSN: 0272-4332
Copyright Owner: 2011 Society for Risk Analysis
Deposited On: 29 Jul 2016 05:37
Last Modified: 03 Aug 2016 04:12

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