The impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in developing countries: A Chinese study based on the U-Kaya method

Wu, Yuzhe, Shen, Jiahui, Zhang, Xiaoling, Skitmore, Martin, & Lu, Wisheng (2016) The impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in developing countries: A Chinese study based on the U-Kaya method. Journal of Cleaner Production, 135, pp. 589-603.

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Abstract

Urbanization results in a considerable economic disparity between urban and rural areas in developing countries, which has had a consequent significant impact on CO2 emissions. To accommodate this directly, this paper presents a modified version of the Kaya Identity formula, U-Kaya, that includes a direct urbanization factor to determine the relationship between energy consumption intensity, population growth, urbanization rates, urban and rural GDP per capita and the volume of carbon emissions, for application in the dynamic forecasting of carbon emissions by Monte Carlo simulation. The method is demonstrated in forecasting China’s likely carbon emissions in 2020 by three different modes of urbanization policy: the government-dominant mode, market-dominant mode and a hybrid government market-dominant mode. The results indicate that a higher urbanization rate, energy carbon emission coefficient and energy intensity will lead to increased carbon emissions. Finally, three policy implications are identified, comprising the narrowing of the economic gap between urban and rural areas, adjustments to the energy structure and technical innovation, which will provide a valuable reference for developing countries in their efforts to reduce carbon emissions.

Impact and interest:

5 citations in Scopus
3 citations in Web of Science®
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ID Code: 98800
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Carbon Emissions, Forecasting, Urbanization, U-Kaya Identity
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.06.121
ISSN: 0959-6526
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Funding:
  • HKSAR DEPTS ENVIRONM/Project No: 92110732
  • HONG KONG RESEARCH G/Project No: 9048039
  • CHINA NATIONAL SCIEN/71373231 and 71303203
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2016 Elsevier Ltd.
Deposited On: 12 Sep 2016 23:07
Last Modified: 28 Jun 2017 12:01

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