Exploring short-term and long-term time frames in Australian population carrying capacity assessment

Lane, Murray C. (2017) Exploring short-term and long-term time frames in Australian population carrying capacity assessment. Population and Environment, pp. 1-16. (In Press)

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Abstract

Time frames are vital determinants in carrying capacity assessment modelling, but their quantification can be problematic. A strictly literal definition of sustainable carrying capacity implies calculating the maximum number of people a landscape can support in perpetuity. However, the concept of perpetuity, representing infinite time, renders the concept impractical, if not impossible, to quantify; so a more pragmatic approach can be to perform assessments for a range of time frames in order to establish potential trends. One Australian-orientated model, the Carrying Capacity Dashboard, was developed to begin exploring temporal flexibility in resource-based carrying capacity modelling. It offers users the ability to choose projected time frames of between one and 150 years for a variety of landscape scales and consumption patterns. Generally, the longer time frames resulted in reduced carrying capacities. One reason for this result is that a completely self-sufficient population would need to match its consumption and hence its size to the anticipated least productive year within any given time frame; and as projected time periods increase, the likelihood of encountering more extreme climatic conditions with smaller yields increases.

Impact and interest:

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ID Code: 99790
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Carrying capacity assessment, Population, Time frames, Carrying Capacity Dashboard, Self-sufficiency
DOI: 10.1007/s11111-016-0264-9
ISSN: 1573-7810
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNING (120500) > Land Use and Environmental Planning (120504)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > STUDIES IN HUMAN SOCIETY (160000) > DEMOGRAPHY (160300) > Population Trends and Policies (160305)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Chancellery
Copyright Owner: © 2016 Springer Science+Business Media New York
Deposited On: 11 Oct 2016 01:15
Last Modified: 12 Nov 2016 19:07

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