A method for forecasting owner monthly construction project expenditure flow
(1998) A method for forecasting owner monthly construction project expenditure flow. International Journal of Forecasting 14(1):pp. 17-34.
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Abstract
Under the normal conditions of construction contracts, the client is obliged to pay the contractor in monthly instalments. The amount of each instalment is based on the value of construction work actually produced in the previous month and forecasts are needed in advance of the likely value of these payments. A database of previously completed contracts and payments made is available. A method for forecasting the value of these instalments is described. This method utilises three approaches, termed (1) analytic, (2) synthetic, (3) hybrid, in combination with six alternative models comprising (1) Hudson, (2) Kenley-Wilson, (3) Berny-Howes, (4) cumulative logistic, (5) cumulative normal, and (6) cumulative lognormal. The forecasts produced by each of these are then subject to a cross-validation analysis to determine the best approach/model combination for the available database and hence forecasts for future expenditure flows. An example is provided for an actual 27 construction project database.
| Item Type: | Journal Article |
|---|---|
| Status: | Published |
| Keywords: | Construction contracts, expenditure flow models, forecasting system, regression model, cross validation, time series. |
| Subjects: | 310000 Architecture, Urban Environment and Building > 310200 Building 310000 Architecture, Urban Environment and Building > 310100 Architecture and Urban Environment 310000 Architecture, Urban Environment and Building |
| ID Code: | 4433 |
| Deposited By: | Alwi, Sugiharto |
| Deposited On: | 09 June 2006 |
| Alternative Locations: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00042-3 |
| Copyright Owner: | Copyright 1998 Elsevier |
| Copyright Statement: | Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. |