Time-series analysis of the risk factors for haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: comparison of statistical models
(2006) Time-series analysis of the risk factors for haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: comparison of statistical models. Epidemiology and Infection 135(2):pp. 245-252.
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Abstract
Three conventional regression models were compared using the time-series data of the occurrence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and several key climatic and occupational variables collected in low-lying land, Anhui Province, China. Model I was a linear time series with normally distributed residuals; model II was a generalized linear model with Poisson-distributed residuals and a log link; and model III was a generalized additive model with the same distributional features as model II. Model I was fitted using least squares whereas models II and III were fitted using maximum likelihood. The results show that the correlations between the HFRS incidence and the independent variables measured (i.e. difference in water level, autumn crop production and density of Apodemus agrarius) ranged from −0·40 to 0·89. The HFRS incidence was positively associated with density of A. agrarius and crop production, but was inversely associated with difference in water level. The residual analyses and the examination of the accuracy of the models indicate that model III may be the most suitable in the assessment of the relationship between the incidence of HFRS and the independent variables.
| Item Type: | Journal Article |
|---|---|
| RM Number: | 2007006825 |
| Status: | Published |
| Subjects: | 320000 Medical and Health Sciences > 321200 Public Health and Health Services 320000 Medical and Health Sciences > 321200 Public Health and Health Services > 321202 Epidemiology |
| ID Code: | 12065 |
| Deposited By: | Woods, Stephen |
| Deposited On: | 17 January 2008 |
| Alternative Locations: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268806006649 |
| Copyright Owner: | Copyright 2006 Cambridge University Press |
| Copyright Statement: | Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. |