Discovering causal factors explaining business process performance variation

Business process performance may be affected by a range of factors, such as the volume and characteristics of ongoing cases or the performance and availability of individual resources. Event logs collected by modern information systems provide a wealth of data about the execution of business processes. However, extracting root causes for performance issues from these event logs is a major challenge. Processes may change continuously due to internal and external factors. Moreover, there may be many resources and case attributes influencing performance. This paper introduces a novel approach based on time series analysis to detect cause-effect relations between a range of business process characteristics and process performance indicators. The scalability and practical relevance of the approach has been validated by a case study involving a real-life insurance claims handling process.