Political Entrenchment and GDP Misreporting
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Description
By examining discrepancies between officially reported GDP growth figures and the actual economic growth implied by satellite-based night time light (NTL) density, we investigate whether democracies manipulate officially reported GDP figures, and if so, whether such manipulation pays political dividends. We find that the over-reporting of growth rates does indeed precede increases in popular support, with around a 1% over-statement associated with a 0.5% increase in voter intentions for the incumbent. These results are robust to allowing the elasticity of official GDP statistics to NTL to be country specific, as well as accounting for the quality of governance, and checks and balances on executive power.
Impact and interest:
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| ID Code: | 207619 | ||||
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| Item Type: | Working Paper (Working Paper) | ||||
| Series Name: | CESifo Working Paper | ||||
| Refereed: | No | ||||
| ORCID iD: |
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| Keywords: | manipulation, political entrenchment, electoral cycles, trust, popular support, GDP, night lights | ||||
| Pure ID: | 74857904 | ||||
| Divisions: | Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > QUT Business School Current > Schools > School of Economics & Finance |
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| Copyright Owner: | 2019 The Authors | ||||
| Copyright Statement: | This work is covered by copyright. Unless the document is being made available under a Creative Commons Licence, you must assume that re-use is limited to personal use and that permission from the copyright owner must be obtained for all other uses. If the document is available under a Creative Commons License (or other specified license) then refer to the Licence for details of permitted re-use. It is a condition of access that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. If you believe that this work infringes copyright please provide details by email to qut.copyright@qut.edu.au | ||||
| Deposited On: | 28 Jan 2021 03:08 | ||||
| Last Modified: | 01 Mar 2024 23:46 |
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