Invasion lags: The stories we tell ourselves and our inability to infer process from pattern
Description
Aim Many alien species experience a lag phase between arriving in a region and becoming invasive, which can provide a valuable window of opportunity for management. Our ability to predict which species are experiencing lags has major implications for management decisions that are worth billions of dollars and that may determine the survival of some native species. To date, timing and causes of lag and release have been identified post hoc, based on historical narratives. Location Global. Methods We use a simple but realistic simulation of population spread over a fragmented landscape. To break the invasion lag, we introduce a sudden, discrete change in dispersal. Results We show that the ability to predict invasion lags is minimal even under controlled circumstances. We also show a non-negligible risk of falsely attributing lag breaks to mechanisms based on invasion trajectories and coincidences in timing. Main conclusions We suggest that post hoc narratives may lead us to erroneously believe we can predict lags and that a precautionary approach is the only sound management practice for most alien species.
Impact and interest:
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ID Code: | 223204 | ||
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Item Type: | Contribution to Journal (Journal Article) | ||
Refereed: | Yes | ||
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Measurements or Duration: | 8 pages | ||
DOI: | 10.1111/ddi.12669 | ||
ISSN: | 1472-4642 | ||
Pure ID: | 33327321 | ||
Divisions: | Past > Institutes > Institute for Future Environments Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty Current > Research Centres > ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical & Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS) |
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Copyright Owner: | Consult author(s) regarding copyright matters | ||
Copyright Statement: | This work is covered by copyright. Unless the document is being made available under a Creative Commons Licence, you must assume that re-use is limited to personal use and that permission from the copyright owner must be obtained for all other uses. If the document is available under a Creative Commons License (or other specified license) then refer to the Licence for details of permitted re-use. It is a condition of access that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. If you believe that this work infringes copyright please provide details by email to qut.copyright@qut.edu.au | ||
Deposited On: | 06 Nov 2021 17:41 | ||
Last Modified: | 25 Jul 2024 10:43 |
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