Recent advances of quantitative modeling to support invasive species eradication on islands

The eradication of invasive species from islands is an important part of managing these ecologically unique and at-risk regions. Island eradications are complex projects and mathematical models play an important role in supporting efficient and transparent decision-making. In this review, we cover the past applications of modeling to island eradications, which range from large-scale prioritizations across groups of islands, to project-level decision-making tools. While quantitative models have been formulated and parameterized for a range of important problems, there are also critical research gaps. Many applications of quantitative modeling lack uncertainty analyses, and are therefore overconfident. Forecasting the ecosystem-wide impacts of species eradications is still extremely challenging, despite recent progress in the field. Overall, the field of quantitative modeling is well-developed for island eradication planning. Multiple practical modeling tools are available for, and are being applied to, a diverse suite of important decisions, and quantitative modeling is well placed to address pressing issues in the field.