Investigating low-carbon pathways for hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states: Economic transition in Qatar

For several decades oil-rich ‘hydrocarbon-dependent’ rentier states (countries) have been attempting to reduce their substantial economic reliance on oil, prompted by cyclical global commodity price volatility. Despite the sluggish economic diversification efforts, these states are now confronted with another structural challenge - an accelerating decline in global demand for fossil fuels as a part of climate change mitigation measures. With global economic agencies calling for rapid and unprecedented reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, there is an urgent need for these states to rapidly transition to a low carbon economy while minimizing adverse economic and social consequences. Addressing this imperative, the authors have sought to understand the ‘low-carbon pathways’ that could enable a rapid economic transition, using a two-stage Delphi study which used the hydrocarbon-dependent rentier state of Qatar as a case study. This paper presents the results of the Delphi study regarding the economic transition (part of the broader social change) from hydrocarbon-dependent to a low-carbon economy, investigating the key drivers and barriers and opportunities. The researchers propose a set of recommendations for facilitating economic transition away from the reliance on oil, to encourage the adoption of global and regional transition drivers, and overcome identified transition barriers. The study findings have implications for guiding public and private sector leaders to initiate and accelerate the transition in rentier state economies.