Evaluating the Information Efficiency of Australian Electricity Spot Markets: Multiple Variance Ratio Tests of Random Walks
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Description
This paper examines whether Australian electricity spot prices follow a random walk. Daily peak and off-peak (base load) prices for New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia are sampled over the period July 1999 to June 2001 and analysed using multiple variance ratio tests. The results indicate that the null hypothesis of a random walk can be rejected in all peak period and most off-period markets because of the autocorrelation of returns. For the Victorian market, the off-peak period electricity spot price follows a random walk. One implication of the study is that in most instances, stochastic autoregressive modelling techniques may be adequate for forecasting electricity prices.
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| ID Code: | 2528 |
|---|---|
| Item Type: | Contribution to Journal (Journal Article) |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Measurements or Duration: | 16 pages |
| ISSN: | 0970-3888 |
| Pure ID: | 34117090 |
| Divisions: | Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > QUT Business School Current > Schools > School of Economics & Finance |
| Copyright Owner: | Consult author(s) regarding copyright matters |
| Copyright Statement: | This work is covered by copyright. Unless the document is being made available under a Creative Commons Licence, you must assume that re-use is limited to personal use and that permission from the copyright owner must be obtained for all other uses. If the document is available under a Creative Commons License (or other specified license) then refer to the Licence for details of permitted re-use. It is a condition of access that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. If you believe that this work infringes copyright please provide details by email to qut.copyright@qut.edu.au |
| Deposited On: | 15 Nov 2005 00:00 |
| Last Modified: | 04 Apr 2024 13:42 |
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