A fully Bayesian approach to inference for Coxian phase-type distributions with covariate dependent mean
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Description
Phase-type distributions represent the time to absorption for a finite state Markov chain in continuous time, generalising the exponential distribution and providing a flexible and useful modelling tool. We present a new reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for performing a fully Bayesian analysis of the popular Coxian subclass of phase-type models; the convenient Coxian representation involves fewer parameters than a more general phase-type model. The key novelty of our approach is that we model covariate dependence in the mean whilst using the Coxian phase-type model as a very general residual distribution. Such incorporation of covariates into the model has not previously been attempted in the Bayesian literature. A further novelty is that we also propose a reversible jump scheme for investigating structural changes to the model brought about by the introduction of Erlang phases. Our approach addresses more questions of inference than previous Bayesian treatments of this model and is automatic in nature. We analyse an example dataset comprising lengths of hospital stays of a sample of patients collected from two Australian hospitals to produce a model for a patient's expected length of stay which incorporates the effects of several covariates. This leads to interesting conclusions about what contributes to length of hospital stay with implications for hospital planning. We compare our results with an alternative classical analysis of these data.
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ID Code: | 28453 | ||
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Item Type: | Contribution to Journal (Journal Article) | ||
Refereed: | Yes | ||
ORCID iD: |
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Measurements or Duration: | 11 pages | ||
Keywords: | Bayesian Statistics, Phase Type Distributions, RJMCMC | ||
DOI: | 10.1016/j.csda.2009.05.021 | ||
ISSN: | 0167-9473 | ||
Pure ID: | 31935595 | ||
Divisions: | Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Science and Technology Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty Current > Research Centres > Australian Research Centre for Aerospace Automation |
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Copyright Owner: | Consult author(s) regarding copyright matters | ||
Copyright Statement: | This work is covered by copyright. Unless the document is being made available under a Creative Commons Licence, you must assume that re-use is limited to personal use and that permission from the copyright owner must be obtained for all other uses. If the document is available under a Creative Commons License (or other specified license) then refer to the Licence for details of permitted re-use. It is a condition of access that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. If you believe that this work infringes copyright please provide details by email to qut.copyright@qut.edu.au | ||
Deposited On: | 09 Nov 2009 00:13 | ||
Last Modified: | 18 Jun 2024 08:15 |
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