Modelling reliability of train arrival times

Ferreira, Luis & Higgins, Andrew (1996) Modelling reliability of train arrival times. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 122(6), pp. 414-420.

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This paper deals with the scheduling of trains so as to minimise train trip times, whilst maximising reliability of arrival times. The amount of risk of delay associated with a schedule is used as the reliability component of a constrained schedule optimisation model. The paper outlines the model developed to quantify the risk of delays to individual trains, as well as to specific track segments and to the schedule as a whole. The risk model, which deals with single track operations, can be used to estimate the likely impact on reliability of arrival times of changes in train frequencies and operating practices; track and station infrastructure investment strategies; and train technology upgrading.

An application of the model to the optimisation of schedules on a track corridor is described. The results obtained using the model are compared with the schedules used by train operations planning staff, in terms of overall delay and timetable reliability. The results highlight the significance of including a measure of timetable reliability, such as risk of delays, in the objective function for scheduling optimisation.

Impact and interest:

7 citations in Scopus
5 citations in Web of Science®
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477 since deposited on 31 Mar 2006
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ID Code: 3795
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Additional URLs:
Keywords: Timetables, reliability, rail transport, transit performance, optimisation, branch and bound, risk modelling, train scheduling
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(1996)122:6(414)
ISSN: 0733-947X
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > COMMERCE MANAGEMENT TOURISM AND SERVICES (150000) > TRANSPORTATION AND FREIGHT SERVICES (150700) > Rail Transportation and Freight Services (150702)
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Copyright Owner: Copyright 1996 Amercian Society of Civil Engineers
Copyright Statement: Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Deposited On: 31 Mar 2006 00:00
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2010 12:31

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