Bayesian Inference of Hospital-Acquired Infectious Diseases and Control Measures Given Imperfect Surveillance Data
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Description
This paper describes a stochastic epidemic model developed to infer transmission rates of asymptomatic communicable pathogens within a hospital ward. Inference is complicated by partial observation of the epidemic process and dependencies within the data. The epidemic process of nosocomial communicable pathogens can be partially observed by routine swabs testing for the presence of the pathogen. False negative swab results must be accounted for and make it difficult to ascertain the number of patients who were colonised. Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used within a Bayesian framework to make inferences about the colonisation rates and unknown colonisation times. The methods are applied to routinely collected data concerning methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus in an intensive care unit to estimate the effectiveness of isolation on reducing transmission of the bacterium.
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ID Code: | 7868 |
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Item Type: | Contribution to Journal (Journal Article) |
Refereed: | Yes |
Measurements or Duration: | 19 pages |
Keywords: | Bayesian Inference, Infectious Diseases, Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods, Reversible Jump Methods, Stochastic Epidemic Models |
DOI: | 10.1093/biostatistics/kxl017 |
ISSN: | 1465-4644 |
Pure ID: | 33706356 |
Divisions: | Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Science and Technology Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty Current > Research Centres > Australian Research Centre for Aerospace Automation |
Copyright Owner: | Consult author(s) regarding copyright matters |
Copyright Statement: | This work is covered by copyright. Unless the document is being made available under a Creative Commons Licence, you must assume that re-use is limited to personal use and that permission from the copyright owner must be obtained for all other uses. If the document is available under a Creative Commons License (or other specified license) then refer to the Licence for details of permitted re-use. It is a condition of access that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. If you believe that this work infringes copyright please provide details by email to qut.copyright@qut.edu.au |
Deposited On: | 18 Jun 2007 00:00 |
Last Modified: | 30 Mar 2024 20:51 |
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