Modelling port water collision risk using traffic conflicts
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Description
Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Despite the extent of work recently done on collision risk analysis in port waters, little is known about the influencing factors of the risk. This paper develops a technique for modeling collision risks in port waterways in order to examine the associations between the risks and the geometric, traffic, and regulatory control characteristics of waterways. A binomial logistic model, which accounts for the correlations in the risks of a particular fairway at different time periods, is derived from traffic conflicts and calibrated for the Singapore port fairways. Estimation results show that the fairways attached to shoreline, traffic intersection and international fairway attribute higher risks, whereas those attached to confined water and local fairway possess lower risks. Higher risks are also found in the fairways featuring higher degree of bend, lower depth of water, higher numbers of cardinal and isolated danger marks, higher density of moving ships and lower operating speed. The risks are also found to be higher for night-time conditions.
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ID Code: | 50702 | ||
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Item Type: | Contribution to Journal (Journal Article) | ||
Refereed: | Yes | ||
ORCID iD: |
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Measurements or Duration: | 11 pages | ||
Keywords: | Binomial logistic model, Navigational collision risk, Port fairways, Traffic conflicts | ||
DOI: | 10.1017/S0373463311000257 | ||
ISSN: | 0373-4633 | ||
Pure ID: | 32107781 | ||
Divisions: | Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering Past > Schools > School of Urban Development Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Health Past > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty Current > Research Centres > CARRS-Q Centre for Future Mobility Current > Research Centres > Smart Transport Research Centre |
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Copyright Owner: | Consult author(s) regarding copyright matters | ||
Copyright Statement: | This work is covered by copyright. Unless the document is being made available under a Creative Commons Licence, you must assume that re-use is limited to personal use and that permission from the copyright owner must be obtained for all other uses. If the document is available under a Creative Commons License (or other specified license) then refer to the Licence for details of permitted re-use. It is a condition of access that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. If you believe that this work infringes copyright please provide details by email to qut.copyright@qut.edu.au | ||
Deposited On: | 31 May 2012 22:10 | ||
Last Modified: | 18 May 2024 21:14 |
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