Methodological issues in evaluation models: The New Zealand road safety advertising campaign revisited.

In an effort to reduce the enormous cost of road crashes in New Zealand, estimated at NZ$3.3 billion in 1994, the Land Transport Safety Authority (LTSA) implemented an enhanced campaign of speed and alcohol enforcement, supported by graphic and shocking television advertising in October 1995. Due to the high opportunity cost (money could be used elsewhere) and fear appeals of the advertisements, the campaign has generated considerable public debate that was fuelled by several evaluations with differing outcomes. This paper adds to the current debate by reviewing some of the previous evaluations and re-estimating the effectiveness of the campaign by using an alternate model. Our results showed that the campaign was effective in reducing the number of serious casualties during the first two years.